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Felt Poker Forum - Poker Strategy > Tournament Strategy > Single Table Tournaments > AK and weird flop

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 03-12-2008, 06:01 PM
JAMOOL's Avatar
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Default AK and weird flop

This is actually a multi-table tournament but very early and might as well be a sit n' go. It's one of those sats to the $11 sunday tournament.

PokerStars Game #15936101641: Tournament #80678707, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/03/12 - 19:57:31 (ET)
Table '80678707 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: CaiUaDoMina (1480 in chips)
Seat 2: juccus007 (2550 in chips)
Seat 3: Mystic41 (1470 in chips)
Seat 4: 1southcoast (660 in chips)
Seat 5: 1want2win (1450 in chips)
Seat 6: asan10 (1440 in chips)
Seat 7: Roughneck82 (1200 in chips)
Seat 8: fortaner (1770 in chips)
Seat 9: GETINTHEJAIL (1480 in chips)
asan10: posts small blind 10
Roughneck82: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GETINTHEJAIL [Ac Kd]
fortaner: calls 20
GETINTHEJAIL: raises 100 to 120
CaiUaDoMina: folds
juccus007: folds
Mystic41: folds
1southcoast: calls 120
1want2win: calls 120
asan10: folds
Roughneck82: folds
fortaner: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c Tc Jc]
GETINTHEJAIL: bets 260
1southcoast: folds
1want2win: raises 1070 to 1330 and is all-in
GETINTHEJAIL: ?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????



Okay, a few Q's:

Should I even bet the flop?
Was the PF raise big enough?
Am I justified calling here, figuring I've probably got 12 outs and possibly more, getting slightly less than 2:1?
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Old 03-12-2008, 06:22 PM
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Looks fine to me. I think although it might be "correct" to fold, I don't think I could.
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Old 03-12-2008, 06:42 PM
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I think I play it the same and stack off as well given your likely large number of outs and the amount in the pot. Obviously you'll get snap called by KJ and whiff the draw but hypothetically we'd love for him to flip up a hand like that here.
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Old 03-12-2008, 08:11 PM
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Board: 9c Tc Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.676% 49.18% 00.50% 74977 759.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 50.324% 49.83% 00.50% 75965 759.00 { QQ-88, AQs, KJs+, QJs, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, AQo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o }

Call.
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Old 03-12-2008, 10:11 PM
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if u want to see the turn check to call a smaller bet than the all in and you can see the next card for less chips.
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Old 03-12-2008, 10:37 PM
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Check call is actually the worst mistake you could make here.

For one thing, it completely neglects the fact that we have control in this hand through our preflop raise. In addition, while I don't mind a check, calling would be the worst option of the three if we don't get to the turn for free. We can fold but we're forfeiting 50% pot equity, which is always ALWAYS a mistake, regardless of the situation, so we won't check fold. If we check / call we don't get any fold equity, and we actually reduce our equity on the turn. The power of this hand is the fact that we are still 2 cards from the river: if the turn blanks we assume to have half the equity, and would have to make a less +Ev or -EV decision on the turn. Instead, check and raise all in would be better, since we gain some fold equity (good because we're drawing) while getting our money in good (we are actually a favorite to the river, but only if we see 2 cards, not 1).

However, the best option is clearly bet flop, follow up on the turn if necessary. In that way we maximize our fold equity, maintain control of the hand, and most importantly control the size of the pot and also our pot odds.
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Old 03-12-2008, 10:39 PM
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sfu, where do I find the website to find those simulations? My computer crashed and I don't have them anymore. I did figure I've got 12 outs to the nuts but figured my opponent would be nearly guaranteed to have at least one of them, and if he has a flush I'm down to 7. I guess I'm more concerned with the flop bet. Really wasn't sure how to play that...

If you're wondering what happened he had a pair of jacks and the Q of clubs, and I missed the draw. Kind of surprising since I had 3 more outs in that case. Oh well.
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Old 03-13-2008, 06:47 AM
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It's called pokerstove, and it's free .
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Old 03-13-2008, 08:06 AM
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Whatever you do here, don't fold.
__________________
(2:13:49 PM) Mirage: I had already decided to get it in while he was timing down though so his FE was nonexistant
(2:14:05 PM) Mirage: I mean wtf does he think I have there when I take that line pre and on the flop
(2:14:11 PM) Eric: {random}
(2:14:14 PM) Mirage: lol
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Old 03-15-2008, 06:56 PM
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well i cant really say if u did anything wrong in this hand...even if u did call u had a ton of outs to hit (most likely)...i dont get his all-in except if he already had the flush...but it could have gone either way...if u felt like gambling a call should have been the move...to be conservative...u may have to throw it away (if u dont feel like putting ur money on a draw)...gl
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