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Villian is an unknown, just moved to this table 19 hands ago, raised 2 times so far. I have an above avg stack by about 10k here.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (9 handed) [url=http://www.6man.org/cgi-bin/hhconverter.cgi:iwpgyn28]TightPoker converter[/url:iwpgyn28] BB (t18907) UTG (t4725) UTG+1 (t4190 MP1 (t16765) MP2 (t20184) MP3 (t46472) Hero (t33973) Button (t32146) SB (t61910) Preflop: Hero is CO with :Tc:, :Td:. 3 folds, MP2 raises to t4000, 1 fold, [color=#CC3333]Hero ?? |
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I do not like calling since the set odds are horrible, the possibility of the overcards falling is too big and there is a 60K stack ahead of you who might use this opportunity to push and steal the pot.
Including this hand, his PFR comes to about 15%, which includes a whole lot of hands that you are beating. He has less than 2/3 of your stack and he only has 1/5 of his stack on the table, so he has not committed himself yet and will fold the coin toss hands like AJ, KQ, etc. so... POOOSSSHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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I'm sorry NLman I think you misunderstood. I should of said this is the 2nd hand he has raised. That would lower his PFR % to 10%.
I agree that I think calling is a bad move. looking back though I think I can make a valid arguement for folding. I didnt mention that 2 hands earlier I pushed against the button in which I thought he was stealing, he ended up having AK and I won that hand to get me to the +10k above avg. Alot of people will view this push as weak when I originally just did it because I thought he was stealing, but I had backup incase he wasnt. Now having said that 2 hands later I pick up TT. Knowing that I just pushed 99 2 hands ago, I might want to wait for a better spot here. He could easily have 2 over cards or a higher PP, my fold equity is I think lowered from that 99 hand so that gives him a greater chance to call. Although, winning this hand would give me a hell of a lot of chips, losing it would pretty much nullify my chances. It seems since I have so many chips now I could wait for a better spot vs a looser player, or just a better hand in general. I remember watching linuxrocks replayer and a similar hand like this showed up and he just straight up folded his decent PP (i think it was TT in this case as well). It might of been the right move too. He ended up calling my push, and he flipped over AK and hit a K to put me down to ~14k (now ~10k below avg). I would really like to discuss this hand more, these are the type of decisions MTT players have to make all the time. |
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@Hitlin Hmm... he has 10% PFR and you just pushed 99 2 hands ago... hmm... there goes the fold equity. A fold doesn't seem so bad from your position now. So, only push it if you're feeling lucky :) |
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I would just call here. I think folding is weak, and I don't think it takes a set to win this pot (we are playing in position). If SB raises all-in, we can fold since we only have 1/8th of our stack on the line. Being above average in chips, I don't think we have to push right now.
I play in the $4.40s, so I am far from an authority on this subject.
__________________
"Seriously, even if you're not the most skilled player in the tournament, remember that Jamie Gold actually won a tournament" - Randy |
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__________________
"Seriously, even if you're not the most skilled player in the tournament, remember that Jamie Gold actually won a tournament" - Randy |
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