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Felt Poker Forum - Poker Strategy > Tournament Strategy > Multi Table Tournaments > $10 MTT ITM TT vs a raise

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 09-29-2007, 07:56 PM
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Default $10 MTT ITM TT vs a raise

Villian is an unknown, just moved to this table 19 hands ago, raised 2 times so far. I have an above avg stack by about 10k here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (9 handed) [url=http://www.6man.org/cgi-bin/hhconverter.cgi:iwpgyn28]TightPoker converter[/url:iwpgyn28]

BB (t18907)
UTG (t4725)
UTG+1 (t4190
MP1 (t16765)
MP2 (t20184)
MP3 (t46472)
Hero (t33973)
Button (t32146)
SB (t61910)

Preflop: Hero is CO with :Tc:, :Td:.
3 folds, MP2 raises to t4000, 1 fold, [color=#CC3333]Hero ??
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Old 09-29-2007, 10:31 PM
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I might just call here. villain could be betting with 2 overcards and you have position.
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Old 10-01-2007, 12:25 PM
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I do not like calling since the set odds are horrible, the possibility of the overcards falling is too big and there is a 60K stack ahead of you who might use this opportunity to push and steal the pot.

Including this hand, his PFR comes to about 15%, which includes a whole lot of hands that you are beating. He has less than 2/3 of your stack and he only has 1/5 of his stack on the table, so he has not committed himself yet and will fold the coin toss hands like AJ, KQ, etc.

so...

POOOSSSHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 10-01-2007, 12:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NLMan
will fold the coin toss hands like AJ, KQ, etc.
ORLY?
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Old 10-01-2007, 01:02 PM
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I'm sorry NLman I think you misunderstood. I should of said this is the 2nd hand he has raised. That would lower his PFR % to 10%.

I agree that I think calling is a bad move. looking back though I think I can make a valid arguement for folding.

I didnt mention that 2 hands earlier I pushed against the button in which I thought he was stealing, he ended up having AK and I won that hand to get me to the +10k above avg. Alot of people will view this push as weak when I originally just did it because I thought he was stealing, but I had backup incase he wasnt.

Now having said that 2 hands later I pick up TT. Knowing that I just pushed 99 2 hands ago, I might want to wait for a better spot here. He could easily have 2 over cards or a higher PP, my fold equity is I think lowered from that 99 hand so that gives him a greater chance to call.

Although, winning this hand would give me a hell of a lot of chips, losing it would pretty much nullify my chances. It seems since I have so many chips now I could wait for a better spot vs a looser player, or just a better hand in general.

I remember watching linuxrocks replayer and a similar hand like this showed up and he just straight up folded his decent PP (i think it was TT in this case as well).

It might of been the right move too. He ended up calling my push, and he flipped over AK and hit a K to put me down to ~14k (now ~10k below avg).

I would really like to discuss this hand more, these are the type of decisions MTT players have to make all the time.
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Old 10-01-2007, 01:21 PM
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I like calling and playing poker.

*edit* but I suck at MTT's.
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(2:13:49 PM) Mirage: I had already decided to get it in while he was timing down though so his FE was nonexistant
(2:14:05 PM) Mirage: I mean wtf does he think I have there when I take that line pre and on the flop
(2:14:11 PM) Eric: {random}
(2:14:14 PM) Mirage: lol
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Old 10-01-2007, 01:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sfustsh
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLMan
will fold the coin toss hands like AJ, KQ, etc.
ORLY?
True, he could be a retard, but I wouldn't risk my entire stack on a coin flip, let alone risk being dominated by AK/AQ.

@Hitlin

Hmm... he has 10% PFR and you just pushed 99 2 hands ago... hmm...
there goes the fold equity. A fold doesn't seem so bad from your position now. So, only push it if you're feeling lucky :)
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Old 10-01-2007, 01:42 PM
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I would just call here. I think folding is weak, and I don't think it takes a set to win this pot (we are playing in position). If SB raises all-in, we can fold since we only have 1/8th of our stack on the line. Being above average in chips, I don't think we have to push right now.

I play in the $4.40s, so I am far from an authority on this subject.
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Old 10-01-2007, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puckhead23
I would just call here. I think folding is weak... we are playing in position.
Ok, you call because you are in position. Neither of 33K or 60K stacks push, the flop comes 28Q, he makes 5000-6000 c-bet. Your action?
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Old 10-01-2007, 02:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NLMan
Quote:
Originally Posted by puckhead23
I would just call here. I think folding is weak... we are playing in position.
Ok, you call because you are in position. Neither of 33K or 60K stacks push, the flop comes 28Q, he makes 5000-6000 c-bet. Your action?
Under your scenario, of course I auto-fold. Villain only has 19 hands at the table and raised only once before; I have no read. But if the flop comes 289, Villain c-bets 5000-6000, we......? I would think that my odds of flopping eith an overpair or set is a little less than 50-50. But position gives Villain the opportunity to check to us if he misses, not knowing what we'll do since we are in position. I'm guessing Villain might not be very aggressive based on his lack of PFR. Based on this, I think I'm making a +EV call, but I'm willing to listen to arguments that show me how I'm wrong and give me the chance to learn.
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