JJ on double paired board

[MewsicLovr]

I don't have any special reads here.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $44.90
BB: $49.95
Hero (UTG): $52.60
CO: $14.65
BTN: $36.45

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $2, CO folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 4 4 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4

Turn: ($12.75) 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $10, BTN calls $10

River: ($32.75) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $20.45 and is All-In, Hero calls or a disgusted muck?

[sfustsh]

I'd just pass, also, the flop bet is too big.

[Mirage]

This looks like a fold to me, albeit with lots of cursing.

Also, the flop bet looks good to me. You never get credit for anything on a paired flop, and he'll probably think you're even more FOS if you bet big.

[sfustsh]

Originally Posted by Mirage

and he'll probably think you're even more FOS if you bet big.

You know this happens all the time "Let's bet small and maybe he'll get tricky and play back at us." or "If I bet big maybe he'll see it as a bluff."

Come on you can't have both, alright? Villains, IME, are NOT more likely to play back at you because you bet large. In fact all you're likely to do is blow them off 8x.

So, I stand by my original statement that the flop bet is too large.

[MewsicLovr]

Originally Posted by sfustsh

In fact all you're likely to do is blow them off 8x.

LOL. I have a hard enough time trying to blow them off bottom pair, let alone the toppest pair!

[MewsicLovr]

results:

Spoiler:

I called partly out of frustration and partly because I really felt he was on a draw because he called my flop/turn bets really fast. Since every draw missed, I let him fire.

He had 76o ftl.

__________________
(2:13:49 PM) Mirage: I had already decided to get it in while he was timing down though so his FE was nonexistant
(2:14:05 PM) Mirage: I mean wtf does he think I have there when I take that line pre and on the flop
(2:14:11 PM) Eric: {random}
(2:14:14 PM) Mirage: lol

[Ugignadl]

Hey ML, sorry haven't been around really. Thanks for adding the spoiler tags, so I can comment without being biased.

I think this is a great hand, really. I spent a good minute and a half thinking through the analysis, it's quite marginal in my mind. Still, I have trouble folding here. We need to have about 40% equity against his range to call the river, and initially I figured that is way too much and we really have to fold. But looking at the action and carrying through with analysis, ranges and so forth, really you have by my calculations (estimate of course) more like 50% or 55% equity here. Depending on how often he will bluff of course.

I think that a flush draw makes up such a large portion of his range, if he will do this also with overpairs like 99 TT and then throw in a few sparse combinations like AK, 77 with some small conservative bluff percentage it becomes easier. Really, with the double paired board 4488x things are much better for you; his range really apart from connectors isn't hammering 4x and 8x; really 89 is the only hand I'd be worried about.

Finally the check on the river really screams to draws, bluff at me, I dare you. So with all these factors in mind I'd call this, and expect to see a busted draw, whether it be AK or TJs, I'm not sure.

If he has quads, you need to move this to the bfz .

Finally I also wanted to comment on this:

Originally Posted by sfustsh

You know this happens all the time "Let's bet small and maybe he'll get tricky and play back at us." or "If I bet big maybe he'll see it as a bluff."

Come on you can't have both, alright? Villains, IME, are NOT more likely to play back at you because you bet large. In fact all you're likely to do is blow them off 8x.

So, I stand by my original statement that the flop bet is too large.

Agreed.

[He4vensF4ll]

I would check call because I doubt his range is so narrow that an eight makes up more than 25% of it. And if he called two barrels with 87o and got lucky then so be it. I think the only bad move is all in because you limit yourself to hero calls from 66/55.

[mervhage]

It's a tough call to make and helps to know your opponent. Initially I was thinking disgusting muck, but I changed my mind when I looked at the results.

Personally, I felt like the flop bet is fine. I don't have any problems with betting big on paired boards, this one is still potentially problematic depending on what pops up on the turn.

If he has an AXo, with the Ace of hearts, I don't want to risk betting small to keep him in while he has a lot to entice him to chase.