Ugignadl

So I'm away at the moment but stole away a laptop to make a post to y'all.

I managed to find myself in the middle of a crazy poker rush and perhaps the most chaotic place of all is the Crown poker room, which has grown since I was here last, to probably about a hundred tables. Quite huge. It is all because the Aussie Millions is running there. Which, actually, isn't so great, since I don't have 10k to drop on a HU tournament or some other MTT greatness. Any stakers? :D

So I signed up for the cash tables, and the first one to call me was 2/3, buyin $200. Sounds good.

As soon as I sat down I lost the whole buyin. Not under the table or anything, but to the table shark. He was obviously very good at reading people and I was perhaps overplaying my hand. This isn't the reason for the post, but I had QJs, raised from the button. Shark limped earlier; blinds folded and shark called. Flop comes KJT. No flush draw unless you count runner-runner. He bets about pot. I raise about pot, which I figured was close enough to all-in so I went all-in. He snap-called. Flips K4o. I don't improve, he gets my stack.

I decide that there are maybe three out of ten players fish at the table. Some tighties and a few good LAGs. Not a good table for me, compared to what you can get, but I decide to buyin again for $200.

I play a bit tighter. Maybe two hours go past and I haven't won any pots; I do believe it is unlucky, and not bad play in those situations. Anyway, then we get to this hand, which is fairly simple, but figured I would post regardless.

Ugi: $100 (~33BBs)
Tighty?: $190
Sharko: $500
The rest: who cares

So I am in LP and dealt :Ac: :Js:. This is the best hand I have seen yet, but it is still just AJ. Tighty sat down last revolution with a shitload of chips, but had to take off all those over 200. He hadn't played many hands, so could be retarded, but he has a look of a tight player about him who isn't scared of the table. Sharko is playing a lot of pots, aggro, LAG but not a retard. I don't like him, after he took my first stack.

Blinds posted, $2, $3. Folded to shark who is in EP and raises to $16, which is normal. I flat call. Tighty (?) is in the SB and hesitantly calls the $16. Pot is now $51 or so. Tighty/unknwon checks. Sharko bets $40, and I look at him and decide that he missed the flop. I push.

What do people think? Good spot?

The flop was :As: :5h: :5d:

Results after?

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I have been blogging. Last updated April 29th. http://www.feltpoker.com/blogs/ugignadl/

MewsicLovr

Just a thought, if you think he missed the flop, why are we shoving when we only get called when we're pwned?

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(2:13:49 PM) Mirage: I had already decided to get it in while he was timing down though so his FE was nonexistant
(2:14:05 PM) Mirage: I mean wtf does he think I have there when I take that line pre and on the flop
(2:14:11 PM) Eric: {random}
(2:14:14 PM) Mirage: lol

NeXtToNoTHiNG

This is quite interesting because I would never see an online hand go down like either of these. I would also just call on the A55 flop. I don't know why you would just flat preflop with AJo here. I think if he's very Lag that a 3 bet is better, especially given that it looks as though he will stack off with any top pair, so your AJo might even have top pair value. To me, you've really turned your hand into a bluff postflop as if he is a shark holding AQ or less he really can't like it too much, so I think he's going to be calling you with all suited conectors that contain a 5 and AK, with maybe a tiny chance he can fold AK, but shit, this is live, I highly doubt it. At the end of the day, your hand is face up to me as at least a decent Ace, unless he thinks you would make this move with air and make some crying call with JJ/QQ. I know that online, you're very rarely ahead here if called. I wouldn't ever put you on total air here anyway.

But live baffles me, you've just been involved in an all in pot with second pair and TPNK against the tables best player. They are both weird lines to take imo, even for a less than 100bb game. I think the first is an easy muck, and the second is an easy call. I dunno what you were thinking in either of them really.

sfustsh

I'm actually kind of surprised you decided to push this hand, Ugi. I know you're aggressive in good spots and generally are a good reader of cards. But your logic in this hand is counter-intuitive. If you think he's just cbetting this flop then calling is obviously the best choice. For one thing, if SB comes over the top you have a decision to make, but presumably he won't be doing that without a hand that can compete with yours. I would be quite confident he'll fold without an ace, and just flat with all aces that you beat and shove with possibly only better aces (I think the only hand in his range with a 5 is 55, so I'm not worried about that).

So pushing to get SB out is not a reasonable move, since he's not a threat (his cards will be easy to read). Then the question is what's the most +EV way to play this hand against villain. If you push, villain is going to put you on exactly what you have and play perfectly, so that seems like the worst choice. Your other option is to call. It adds a little bit of disguise to your hand: villain might think you have 88, or something, and decide to fire again with nothing or a worse ace. Either way, I can't see not going broke in this hand (unless SB wakes up), so pushing eliminates all chance that villain will call with a bluff (you'll be called if beat anyway).

Calling allows you to extract the most from villain and gleans the most information from SB, and is in my opinion the best option. Pushing doesn't let you fold if SB wakes up and prevents villain from double-barrelling you on the next street.

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Carrera: fuck you

as just above it means big bet.
so again fuck off

Randy

I don't know what to think either Ugi.. Hand one isn't horrible if you are going with a read, but that's not what you said so I dunno... I think you could have dumped hand 1..

Hand two isn't that bad of a play really after showing down middle pair on your last all-in.. This may allow the villain to call with a huge range of hands. A few beat you, most do not.

ML and I see this very different and I've told him a bazillion times this is wrong IMO. It really makes my head hurt everytime I hear this.

I think there is a whole different level of thinking you have to go to here. If you only get called when you beat in hand #2 or any other time, it wouldn't be poker. It would be playing your cards only. If anyone is curious I will pull out my PT stats latter and show how many times I've been "looked up" with Ace high, or even bottom pair. small edges are gained by value betting and pressure betting.. Also, you can't account for time your force the winning hand to fold even though you are beat. You could easily get called here with A10 and below by millions of players.. Sure if that guy has a 5 or AK, he's calling 99% of the time..

Example above is a good one. Some player look to make a Hero lay down with AQ, and sometimes even with AK there because calling in that spot in bad depending on the pot size.. I've played similar hand like this live and after being 3 bet reconsidered and let it go.. Never found out if I was right or not because that isn't the issue. The issue is if it's a +EV or -EV call/fold.. But BEYOND that, is your opponent smart enough to figure that out.

One last thing- Ugi said on hand #2 that he looked at tighty and decided he missed the flop. so, he's going with his read shoving him off w/e he has.. Doesn't matter if he's wrong or not because he's not betting HIS cards..

I have to leave the office now, but I think its always important to remember that poker isn't a game of "who has the best two cards". If that were the case, no of us would play.

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Ugignadl

I have found a way to log in for a short period of time. This goddamn conference is going to be the death of me.

For hand 1, it is standard for me. Given the pot size, and given a regular live villain, I can work out fold equity and then balance that off against the number of times my hand is good as well as the number of times I will suck out when it is not good. It's a standard play live. NT is right, I would never do it online.

Hand 2 is certainly read-based, as is almost every hand played after a certain point with persistent opponents. BUT, and this is a big but, the read-based play would be laying it down to a PSB. If you think of the range tighty has, and we don't know how good he is, assume average, then he could call (or fold) with all kinds of hands. Think of the ranges, see how often he has to call and so on. If you put his preflop call on any reasonable range, it's a profitable push. However, if I had picked up that he had AQ, AK, QQ+ by his flat call then of course it's not good. He did hesitate preflop like he was thinking of raising. However, I discounted this tell since it was so obvious, and these kinds of obvious tells are not as common anymore.

Damnit I'd give some decent analysis but I have to go back to mathland. Cya guys.

Challenge people: I have not forgotten you, I will get around to it as soon as I work out the IT troubles here at this conference.

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I have been blogging. Last updated April 29th. http://www.feltpoker.com/blogs/ugignadl/

NeXtToNoTHiNG

I don't think anyone is concerned about tighty are they? I'm not even worried about us not having the best hand, I'm pretty sure we do in fact. The reason I hate a push is because it puts unnecessary pressure on worse Aces that we want to stay in.

Randy, what you're saying about being able to be called by plenty worse is not quite the argument for what ML is saying, or what I read him as trying to say. All you are really saying is that AJ has good top pair value. I'll get to what I think you really mean later on, but for the time being. If villain were to call here with A8 (as he would have to do for you to start making this be a profitable push), he is going to have to put you on a total bluff here some of the time to keep his A8 neutral EV (when you consider that a small part of our range could contain a 5 as well).

If you want him to call profitably here, you need him to know that his very weak Aces below A8 are sometimes good, and have him start calling with the wrong frequency. This is the wrong board for what you're thinking about Randy. And if you want to post some hands from your PT to show what you mean then fine, but it feels like you're talking about a two way bet/value bluff or range merging which doesn't work here.

MewsicLovr

Yeah, sfu and NT explained better what I was thinking...I'm not worried about not having the best hand, because they are likely to stack us regardless of what we do. I'm more concerned about extracting value from worse hands that may fold to our shove (smaller pairs, weaker aces, so forth). Shoving pretty much makes it so you only get called (most of the time) if you are already beat, negating your hand strength and positional advantage.

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(2:13:49 PM) Mirage: I had already decided to get it in while he was timing down though so his FE was nonexistant
(2:14:05 PM) Mirage: I mean wtf does he think I have there when I take that line pre and on the flop
(2:14:11 PM) Eric: {random}
(2:14:14 PM) Mirage: lol

Ugignadl

I don't think so. I think the shark-y type player will read my bet as weak and call with any bluff catcher.

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I have been blogging. Last updated April 29th. http://www.feltpoker.com/blogs/ugignadl/