Re: Eruu Math at the Fights
I made a couple dumb bets after a bunch of dumb drinks and ended up losing $90 to win $60 on El Tigre's fight the other day. The trip was great and I need to post a better report but the basic deal went like this.
6 people draw numbers 1-6 from a hat and we all put in $20. The winner gets $120 (I somehow misunderstood this math and thought there was more in the pot.).
I draw round two and start looking for some more action at the start of round three. I make a new not so great investment of $30 for half of my new friend's (some random guy sitting next to us who I goaded into betting on the fights) action on round 5. This wasn't a terrible bet because I saw that the guy wasn't going 6 and I was also being nice to my new buddy since he's a banker who can help me out.
I did the math on my own and I wanted to be fair so I divide $120 by 4 rounds left and get $30. I neglect to think about the fact that i'm only playing for $60.
Then at the end of round 3 Alfonso hurts the guy as the bell rings and I know that I'm not winning anything unless I get a piece of round 4. My brother holds this number and he wouldn't sell for less than $40. I pay $40 and the final bet ends up being good.
Because of the action and my reads, I still contend that I never made a -EV bet but it still sucks to do it that way. I missed a crucial piece of the math and everyone got a huge kick out of it when I win and still end up -$30 since I was the instigator of the betting.
I push on the girl's fight, lose on anther and push on the main event because white boy can't punch.
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Bernie Wayne - You stick with me kid. In a few years you'll be wearing diamonds big as horse turds and farting through silk.
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