[Theory]To 3-bet or not 3-bet AA/KK/QQ from the blinds.

sevens · 06-29-2008, 11:06 PM

Here's a hypothetical hand I just made up, but I come into this situation at least once or twice a session, so I think it warrants some discussion.

Hero is in SB with AA/KK/QQ.
100BB stacks.
Folds to villain, who is showing solid reg stats...9/8, 14/10, 10/9, you know...
Villain makes a 4x raise from HJ/CO/BTN.

There is a very good chance he is stealing, or at least raising the lower end of his opening range. I suspect any 3-bet will get him to fold. However, I realize how necessary it is to 3-bet because I don't want to play a big pair 3 way, if my call will make the BB over-call, and in addition I want to get as much money in the middle as I can.

Why should I 3-bet? Is it better to flat in these spots? It seems like whenever I 3-bet, no matter how big or small, they always fold. But I'm torn because I'm still attached to 3-betting for the reasons I mentioned.

Help?

NeXtToNoTHiNG · 06-30-2008, 06:17 AM

You wanna 3 bet from the SB almost always. If you expect a fold then 3 bet him with more stuff, and then when he adjusts you gotta do the same. The only time you should flat there is when the BB is very aggro and will squeeze fairly often.

From the BB it's different assuming when you call it'll be HU. But you're often gonna have to play your hand a bit like a bluff or draw to keep it profitable unless HJ/CO rzr is a real drooler.

MewsicLovr · 06-30-2008, 07:06 AM

The first thing I thought of when I read this was, "3bet wider, then".

Mirage · 06-30-2008, 07:13 AM

Yep, you want to 3bet a wider range of hands so that he won't fold to you so often. That's not to say you should widen it by adding in hands by strength. For instance, if you 3bet AJo, KQ, you will be dominated and get yourself in trouble a lot. Instead, polarize your 3-betting range so that you have premiums (TT+, AK) and a bunch of SC type hands like 76s, 97s, J9s that are mainly a bluff but do have a small potential to flop hard. You might also add in small PP's like 22-66 because you can likewise flop strong or get away from the hand easily.

I would only flat from the sb in this situation if the bb is really really bad... no sense in isolating yourself with the nit, just flat it and come out betting hard on the flop. The nit is going to know you wouldn't do that as a bluff with the whale still in the hand and will go away if he didn't hit anything.

As far as flatting and hoping for someone behind to squeeze, I only attempt this on the button for the most part. I don't want to have everyone behind me call and wind up playing so multiway, even less so if I'm going to be OOP to the field.

sevens · 06-30-2008, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MewsicLovr

The first thing I thought of when I read this was, "3bet wider, then".

That's sort of the conclusion I came to. If I can accurately spot these so-called "regs", and they're folding to 3-bets a lot of the time, why not start adding in air?

And yeah, like Mirage said, I wouldn't do it with like....AJ/KQ type hands because of domination....it would be SCs and PPs. And maybe depending on the situation, complete rags?

Mirage · 06-30-2008, 09:19 AM

Well, let's see. After villain's raise to 4x the bb, there are 7 bbs in the pot. If we want to reraise him to 14bbs, we will put 13bbs more in as we are in the sb with 1 already in front of us. If we simplify the problem and say that we fold to any 4bet and will open fold any flop when called, relying solely on preflop fold equity, how often does he have to fold to a 3bet for a resteal with ATC to break even here?

We are risking 13bbs to win the 7bbs in the pot. The breakeven folding frequency can be determined by setting the amount already in the pot times (x) folding frequency equal to the amount we are risking times his non-folding frequency, (1-x). (Since we are forfeiting the pot regardless of whether he calls or raises the 3bet, we need not differentiate between those two possibilities; we need only know how often he will fold to our 3-bet.)

7x=13(1-x)
7x=13-13x
20x=13
x=13/20
x=.65

If the proposed villain is folding more than roughly 2/3 of his opening range to a 3bet to 14bbs in this situation, ATC can show a profit even if we fold to every 4-bet and open-fold any flop when called. (Note: the above over-simplified computation also ignores the possibility that the big blind will wake up with a hand, but that shouldn't sway the computation much.)

So, if your image is very tight, i.e. you've been card dead and only have a 8 vpip over 50 hands or something, you can exploit it by reraising trash against light openers. Still, it doesn't hurt to do it with a hand that has some value. In position, i.e. BTN vs CO, reraising light is even better because a reasonable opponent is going to fold even more often when faced with being OOP, and isn't going to suddenly spaz out and light 4-bet you if you have a very tight image.

Edit: Also, nice post sevens! This is a good reminder to me personally that I need to try open it up more in the blinds and try folding to resteals a little less often against good thinking players. In the games I play in, the more often you fold to resteals, the more often they come, and I need to cut down on that exploitabilty some; my fold to 3-bet is near 70% in the CO/BTN, so I am very exploitable. I don't come across too many players who are willing to target that hole in my game, but I'll be more wary of it and try to combat it when the need arises.

sevens · 06-30-2008, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mirage

Well, let's see. After villain's raise to 4x the bb, there are 7 bbs in the pot. If we want to reraise him to 14bbs, we will put 13bbs more in as we are in the sb with 1 already in front of us. If we simplify the problem and say that we fold to any 4bet and will open fold any flop when called, relying solely on preflop fold equity, how often does he have to fold to a 3bet for a resteal with ATC to break even here?

We are risking 13bbs to win the 7bbs in the pot. The breakeven folding frequency can be determined by setting the amount already in the pot times (x) folding frequency equal to the amount we are risking times his non-folding frequency, (1-x). (Since we are forfeiting the pot regardless of whether he calls or raises the 3bet, we need not differentiate between those two possibilities; we need only know how often he will fold to our 3-bet.)

7x=13(1-x)
7x=13-13x
20x=13
x=13/20
x=.65

If the proposed villain is folding more than roughly 2/3 of his opening range to a 3bet to 14bbs in this situation, ATC can show a profit even if we fold to every 4-bet and open-fold any flop when called. (Note: the above over-simplified computation also ignores the possibility that the big blind will wake up with a hand, but that shouldn't sway the computation much.)

So, if your image is very tight, i.e. you've been card dead and only have a 8 vpip over 50 hands or something, you can exploit it by reraising trash against light openers. Still, it doesn't hurt to do it with a hand that has some value. In position, i.e. BTN vs CO, reraising light is even better because a reasonable opponent is going to fold even more often when faced with being OOP, and isn't going to suddenly spaz out and light 4-bet you if you have a very tight image.

Edit: Also, nice post sevens! This is a good reminder to me personally that I need to try open it up more in the blinds and try folding to resteals a little less often against good thinking players. In the games I play in, the more often you fold to resteals, the more often they come, and I need to cut down on that exploitabilty some; my fold to 3-bet is near 70% in the CO/BTN, so I am very exploitable. I don't come across too many players who are willing to target that hole in my game, but I'll be more wary of it and try to combat it when the need arises.

Damn nice post yourself!

So I'm getting way ahead of myself here....seems to follow that the way to not be exploited in that spot is not to flat call in position, but to 4-bet shove pre if we suspect we're getting 3-bet light? Or is it to flat pre, raise a c-bet on the right board?

Ugignadl · 06-30-2008, 04:55 PM

The correct answer is the same to each question and it is "yes, sometimes". I'm sorry I don't have time to contribute a nice post to this thread (the imminent threat of deportation is looming, blog post long overdue) but it is a fun read.

I'll just contribute one notion which you might not be familiar with.

Preflop play is in fact simple only in an illusory sense; equally it is the most complicated street in a different but still illusory sense. It is complicated because each of your decisions must be taken into account with possible future actions of villains and possible future boards, your standard line and how that interacts with the other players' standard lines, given all the possible ranges of flops, turns and rivers. There is a plethora of possibilities and a plethora of problems. Preflop play is however the most simple because we have no history for this hand, and thus is the one street where standard play must simply by definition have the most dominance. So the standard line is the best one to take. The question is, what is that standard line, why is it like that, and what the hell about all that future streets bullshit that I mentoned earlier?

Sorry guys. No time...

Mirage · 06-30-2008, 05:00 PM

Mix it up between 4-betting light and calling. Taking flops and floating or raising is more expensive than a small 4-bet, however. I like to 4-bet to about 32bbs so that I can do it as a bluff or for value, and it's still a bit too big for someone to call with something speculative. I also polarize my 4-bet range somewhat and usually see flops with the in-between hands. i.e. I'll 4bet QQ+, AK, and sometimes AQ(s) for value, planning to call it off if shoved on, and 4bet the more garbagy hands (T7s, 98o, whatever, cards don't matter here) planning to fold to a shove. The in-between stuff, like 88-JJ, AQ, sometimes AJ, KQs, I'll call and play poker with. I do occasionally just call with KK+ vs. an overly aggressive opponent as well if I feel they are particularly likely to be restealing light.

I experimented some today with calling 3bets a lot lighter and trying to float a lot. Pretty much every time I floated with garbage I was met with the "stack-a-donk" line, meaning I called the flop cbet and got c/rai on the turn, ugh. But, I've also had sessions in the past where I did some floating in reraised pots with great success, so your mileage may vary. It's almost better to wait til the river to complete the float if you do indeed decide to float because by then your opponent will have checked 2 streets and you can pretty much rule out the possibility that he was trying to c/r you with a strong hand. But mostly I've determined that 4betting is a far superior way to combat light 3-betting when you have weak holdings, regardless of whether you're in or out of position.

darthstfu33 · 06-30-2008, 07:58 PM

You guys overthink this stuff don't you?

06-29-2008, 11:06 PM	#1 (permalink)
sevens Grinder Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 805	[Theory]To 3-bet or not 3-bet AA/KK/QQ from the blinds. Here's a hypothetical hand I just made up, but I come into this situation at least once or twice a session, so I think it warrants some discussion. Hero is in SB with AA/KK/QQ. 100BB stacks. Folds to villain, who is showing solid reg stats...9/8, 14/10, 10/9, you know... Villain makes a 4x raise from HJ/CO/BTN. There is a very good chance he is stealing, or at least raising the lower end of his opening range. I suspect any 3-bet will get him to fold. However, I realize how necessary it is to 3-bet because I don't want to play a big pair 3 way, if my call will make the BB over-call, and in addition I want to get as much money in the middle as I can. Why should I 3-bet? Is it better to flat in these spots? It seems like whenever I 3-bet, no matter how big or small, they always fold. But I'm torn because I'm still attached to 3-betting for the reasons I mentioned. Help? __________________ sevens' blog The adventures of a micro-grinder! Updated 8/20 "Stake Update - Day 2" The basics of a solid TAG Game strat video "double gutshot" - twice as good as a single gutshot!

06-30-2008, 06:17 AM	#2 (permalink)
NeXtToNoTHiNG Grinder Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: don't Posts: 594	You wanna 3 bet from the SB almost always. If you expect a fold then 3 bet him with more stuff, and then when he adjusts you gotta do the same. The only time you should flat there is when the BB is very aggro and will squeeze fairly often. From the BB it's different assuming when you call it'll be HU. But you're often gonna have to play your hand a bit like a bluff or draw to keep it profitable unless HJ/CO rzr is a real drooler. Last edited by NeXtToNoTHiNG; 06-30-2008 at 06:19 AM.

06-30-2008, 09:19 AM	#6 (permalink)
Mirage Whale Hunter Join Date: May 2007 Location: Raising donk bets Posts: 3,226	Well, let's see. After villain's raise to 4x the bb, there are 7 bbs in the pot. If we want to reraise him to 14bbs, we will put 13bbs more in as we are in the sb with 1 already in front of us. If we simplify the problem and say that we fold to any 4bet and will open fold any flop when called, relying solely on preflop fold equity, how often does he have to fold to a 3bet for a resteal with ATC to break even here? We are risking 13bbs to win the 7bbs in the pot. The breakeven folding frequency can be determined by setting the amount already in the pot times (x) folding frequency equal to the amount we are risking times his non-folding frequency, (1-x). (Since we are forfeiting the pot regardless of whether he calls or raises the 3bet, we need not differentiate between those two possibilities; we need only know how often he will fold to our 3-bet.) 7x=13(1-x) 7x=13-13x 20x=13 x=13/20 x=.65 If the proposed villain is folding more than roughly 2/3 of his opening range to a 3bet to 14bbs in this situation, ATC can show a profit even if we fold to every 4-bet and open-fold any flop when called. (Note: the above over-simplified computation also ignores the possibility that the big blind will wake up with a hand, but that shouldn't sway the computation much.) So, if your image is very tight, i.e. you've been card dead and only have a 8 vpip over 50 hands or something, you can exploit it by reraising trash against light openers. Still, it doesn't hurt to do it with a hand that has some value. In position, i.e. BTN vs CO, reraising light is even better because a reasonable opponent is going to fold even more often when faced with being OOP, and isn't going to suddenly spaz out and light 4-bet you if you have a very tight image. Edit: Also, nice post sevens! This is a good reminder to me personally that I need to try open it up more in the blinds and try folding to resteals a little less often against good thinking players. In the games I play in, the more often you fold to resteals, the more often they come, and I need to cut down on that exploitabilty some; my fold to 3-bet is near 70% in the CO/BTN, so I am very exploitable. I don't come across too many players who are willing to target that hole in my game, but I'll be more wary of it and try to combat it when the need arises. Last edited by Mirage; 06-30-2008 at 09:31 AM.

06-30-2008, 04:55 PM	#8 (permalink)
Ugignadl Drunken Aussie Join Date: May 2007 Location: Aussieland Posts: 7,671	The correct answer is the same to each question and it is "yes, sometimes". I'm sorry I don't have time to contribute a nice post to this thread (the imminent threat of deportation is looming, blog post long overdue) but it is a fun read. I'll just contribute one notion which you might not be familiar with. Preflop play is in fact simple only in an illusory sense; equally it is the most complicated street in a different but still illusory sense. It is complicated because each of your decisions must be taken into account with possible future actions of villains and possible future boards, your standard line and how that interacts with the other players' standard lines, given all the possible ranges of flops, turns and rivers. There is a plethora of possibilities and a plethora of problems. Preflop play is however the most simple because we have no history for this hand, and thus is the one street where standard play must simply by definition have the most dominance. So the standard line is the best one to take. The question is, what is that standard line, why is it like that, and what the hell about all that future streets bullshit that I mentoned earlier? Sorry guys. No time... __________________ I have been blogging. Last updated April 29th. http://www.feltpoker.com/blogs/ugignadl/

06-30-2008, 05:00 PM	#9 (permalink)
Mirage Whale Hunter Join Date: May 2007 Location: Raising donk bets Posts: 3,226	Mix it up between 4-betting light and calling. Taking flops and floating or raising is more expensive than a small 4-bet, however. I like to 4-bet to about 32bbs so that I can do it as a bluff or for value, and it's still a bit too big for someone to call with something speculative. I also polarize my 4-bet range somewhat and usually see flops with the in-between hands. i.e. I'll 4bet QQ+, AK, and sometimes AQ(s) for value, planning to call it off if shoved on, and 4bet the more garbagy hands (T7s, 98o, whatever, cards don't matter here) planning to fold to a shove. The in-between stuff, like 88-JJ, AQ, sometimes AJ, KQs, I'll call and play poker with. I do occasionally just call with KK+ vs. an overly aggressive opponent as well if I feel they are particularly likely to be restealing light. I experimented some today with calling 3bets a lot lighter and trying to float a lot. Pretty much every time I floated with garbage I was met with the "stack-a-donk" line, meaning I called the flop cbet and got c/rai on the turn, ugh. But, I've also had sessions in the past where I did some floating in reraised pots with great success, so your mileage may vary. It's almost better to wait til the river to complete the float if you do indeed decide to float because by then your opponent will have checked 2 streets and you can pretty much rule out the possibility that he was trying to c/r you with a strong hand. But mostly I've determined that 4betting is a far superior way to combat light 3-betting when you have weak holdings, regardless of whether you're in or out of position. Last edited by Mirage; 06-30-2008 at 05:03 PM.

06-30-2008, 07:06 AM	#3 (permalink)
MewsicLovr Forum Master Join Date: May 2007 Location: perpetually exhausted Posts: 6,459	The first thing I thought of when I read this was, "3bet wider, then".

06-30-2008, 07:13 AM	#4 (permalink)
Mirage Whale Hunter Join Date: May 2007 Location: Raising donk bets Posts: 3,226	Yep, you want to 3bet a wider range of hands so that he won't fold to you so often. That's not to say you should widen it by adding in hands by strength. For instance, if you 3bet AJo, KQ, you will be dominated and get yourself in trouble a lot. Instead, polarize your 3-betting range so that you have premiums (TT+, AK) and a bunch of SC type hands like 76s, 97s, J9s that are mainly a bluff but do have a small potential to flop hard. You might also add in small PP's like 22-66 because you can likewise flop strong or get away from the hand easily. I would only flat from the sb in this situation if the bb is really really bad... no sense in isolating yourself with the nit, just flat it and come out betting hard on the flop. The nit is going to know you wouldn't do that as a bluff with the whale still in the hand and will go away if he didn't hit anything. As far as flatting and hoping for someone behind to squeeze, I only attempt this on the button for the most part. I don't want to have everyone behind me call and wind up playing so multiway, even less so if I'm going to be OOP to the field.

06-30-2008, 07:58 PM	#10 (permalink)
darthstfu33 Fish Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 7	You guys overthink this stuff don't you?

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