Double or Nothing Strategy
What are the Late/Bubble Rounds?
The middle rounds are characterized by 5-15bb stacks relative to the starting stacks. The late round blind levels start at 75/150 + 15 ante, and escalate from there.
The late rounds of a DON are the most important rounds. They can be played unexploitably, and there is also a twist for very good players. There are lots of situations where ICM (click here if you aren’t familiar with ICM) can’t take into account certain variables. For example, on the bubble if the two players behind you can’t cover the blinds in the next round, but small blind shoves into your big blind and you have AA, should you call?
ICM might say you should, but this is a situation where you probably should just fold it and let the blinds eliminate the stacks that can’t cover. Look at both sides of this situation. You know you should fold, so if you are in the small blind when this situation comes up, exploit the fact that big blind has to fold.
Here are a few general pointers for the late rounds:
- Find stacks who will fold to your raises
- Very rarely call other peoples’ raises, especially on the bubble
- Don’t tangle with stacks that can eliminate you
Late rounds example 1: Pushing 100% of your range against a relatively wide calling range
The Situation: Everyone has the same size stack here. The blinds are 75/150. It is folded around to hero in the small blind. Big Blind has a 10% calling range, representing 55+, A8s+.
What To Do: You can profitably push 100% of your hands.
Why You Should Do It: Look at the size of the pot. There are 375 chips in the pot. That is more than 25% of your stack. As a general rule, any time you can increase your stack by 25% by shoving and taking the blinds, go ahead and push. In this situation you can see that shoving any two cards is the correct play.