50NL Grossest spot I've ever been in with a set.

[sevens]

Villain is a 10/6 nit. I call the turn because it's totally possible for him to have 77, but also strong overpairs. I think those go away if I raise because my hand starts to look like 77 then. Do I honestly beat anything on the river?

[Mirage]

I think he has 77 here pretty much always as he wouldn't value-bet anything besides a 7. I think you only level yourself by calling here, he's not thinking "lolz I'm gonna merge my range and barrel this AA/KK/55/44 and get called by all kinds of stuff." I also don't think he's going to turn his hand into a bluff when the turn comes a 4-straight because he has so few sevens in his range.

I wouldn't be too hard on you if you did call, I've certainly made worse calls for more bb's, but I would suspect that even if he is spazzing here with some non-zero frequency, it's not enough to make the call.

If you think I'm under (or over!) estimating the guy, perhaps a call could be correct. By overestimating, I mean maybe he's the type of nit who sucks postflop and just closes his eyes and 3-barrels his aces every time, and by underestimating, I mean perhaps he is capable of value betting worse than a 7 or turning his hand into a bluff. But by and large, against a nit, this is a (disgusted) fold.

[MewsicLovr]

Man vs a nit this is probably a fold but I still click call and curse when I lose.

[bigloser2448]

Call and fill up on the ocean. ldo

[sevens]

I thought about this hand later and I think there's like.....1% chance he has QQ+ here. What 10/7 nit is not betting the flop with QQ+? For that reason, I think his range is even more weighted towards {air, 77}.

[bigloser2448]

I had a hand similar to this last night.
Villain raises from CO
I call with 99.
flop 789 rb
he bets pot, WTF!! TT+?
I shove he calls with T6. Bastard.
rigged

[Mirage]

Originally Posted by sevens

I thought about this hand later and I think there's like.....1% chance he has QQ+ here. What 10/7 nit is not betting the flop with QQ+? For that reason, I think his range is even more weighted towards {air, 77}.

Wow, I didn't even notice he c/c the flop. Clear fold then.

[puckhead23]

I don't think a 10/6 nit is going to call your flop bet with only 5 outs (3 sixes, 2 sevens) OOP, especially if he puts you on an overpair like 99-JJ. Your line doesn't smell like a 7, so Villain might think his lower set is the best hand. I think Villain could play a lesser set like this often enough to warrant a call.

[DDub]

I would probably call. The only holding that makes sense for villian and beats you is 77. If you played this hand a 1000 times how often would you expect the villian to show up with 77? More than 50%? If so then fold, if not call. What is his c-bet %? and AF? I might look at those when deciding to call or not.

He's a nit, OK fine. Does he know that you know he's a nit? If so he could be using his image to exploit you.

Like I said I would probably call and then cry when he showed me a 7.

[MewsicLovr]

I think it's also very possible he holds 76s. It's full ring and 10/6 is probably LAG by full ring standards.