$25 NL Hand 2 of 2 (SPOILER ON Hand #1 inside)

[puckhead23]

So Villain has me talking to myself when he shows for just trip nines. It's possible that the other guy folded a flush (maybe better than my 6 high flush) and I'm trying to take solace in that. About 20 minutes later:

Puck UTG with ; I have $35, Hand 1 Villain $50 (turned out to be a maniac), Button has about $10

Hero raises to $0.75
Hand 1 Villain calls $0.75
Button Calls $0.75

($2.60) Flop:

Puck bets $1.75
Villain raises all-in
Button Calls

Puck?

I have a set, and I can't possibly give Hand 1 villain credit for a str8. I believe he might do this with 2 pair. A flush draw might not be out of the realm either, since I proved I can fold a hand before. As I said, he throws his money around hard and has gotten lucky. I could give Button credit for the str8 calling my bet and the all-in, but he only has $10, which means I can take about $25 of Villain's stack if my read is right. I think this is a for-sure call, but is it a call with a fistpump? Is it a crying call, hoping for a redraw? Or does anyone disagree with me and fold this since I've only got $2.50 invested?

[johnny]

I call and it's like one of those Phil Helmuth calls when he has his fists up against his face then the guy pushes on him and he dances around. If he has the magic cards then he has them, but we have outs.

It was still a good fold on the first hand.

[MewsicLovr]

Call, especially because button is short.

[MewsicLovr]

btw i still like calling the first hand. But I'm a station I guess.

[sfustsh]

Dude whatever, call.

You have like a gazillion outs.

Christ you have second set.

[puckhead23]

Originally Posted by MewsicLovr

btw i still like calling the first hand. But I'm a station I guess.

You would have been right. Looks like you're not a station, but rather I'm a nit

[puckhead23]

Originally Posted by sfustsh

Dude whatever, call.

You have like a gazillion outs.

Christ you have second set.

I said I felt it this was a call, but my main question is are you calling believing you're way ahead or you're behind with outs. As it turned out, I didn't have 10 outs twice. Hand #1 Villain had QJ for teh nuts, and shortstack Villain had T9 (which cost me two of my outs), so I was down to 8 outs or runner-runner. Turn was a 2, river was a 2, Puck takes a healthy pot.

As I said in the first post, I have been running cold before these 2 hands. Some suckouts, and I'm sure some less-than-optimal play on my part. Then in Hand #1, I folded the best hand. In Hand #2, I called with the worst hand. That was rather alarming to me. I need to make sure my play is not sub-optimal and ensure most of my downswing is variance, not donkeyhood. I'm not taking any decision for granted right now.

[MewsicLovr]

You had a huge hand vs a maniac. Don't sweat it.

I'm calling because I think I'm about 90 miles ahead, not because I think I need to catch up. And hell, even in those rare times you're behind, you have outs.

[sfustsh]

It's a combination of both.

We're ahead x percent of the time, and behind y percent of the time with z chance to catch up if behind.

Add it all together and multiply and that's your equity. You have waaaaaay over the equity you need to go to the felt here.

[puckhead23]

I just did the math Sfu, and I did not get the answer I expected. Assuming the following:

1) I win a $76 pot when I win and I lose $30 when I make the call and lose
2) I have 30% chance to win when I'm losing to a str8, and a 70% chance to win when I'm up against a str8/flush draw and 2 pair (4 outs for 2 Page Ranking + 8 outs for str8 = 12 outs twice, less the odds that all 4 outs for two pair are good)

If I'm ahead just 5% of the time, I am slightly +EV. I thought I'd have to be ahead more often than that to make this good.

Scenario (Odds to Win, % Ahead/Behind, $ Won/Lost, EV
Win if Ahead 70% 5% 66 2.31
Win if Behind 30% 95% 66 18.81
Lose if Ahead 30% 5% -30 -0.45
Lose if Behind 70% 95% -30 -19.95

TOTAL EV 0.72