$10NL FTP Rush Hand, Line Check and River Decision...

[bigloser2448]

Rush Hand, so obviously no reads. Preflop I was thinking that I didn't want to inflate the pot cause I've seen more than my share AK minraises from UTG and figure I could try to outplay the guy postflop. On the flop and turn I didn't really see myself getting value from hands that I beat, so I went for pot control. Now I have 2nd nuts on the river and have a decision to make. Do I bet and how much?

Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $10.50
SB: $48.60
BB: $4.00
UTG: $25.04
UTG+1: $13.31
UTG+2: $6.65
MP1: $2.71
MP2: $28.66
Hero (CO): $5.71

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q A
UTG raises to $0.20, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.20, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.55) Q K 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.15) A (2 players)
UTG bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

River: ($2.35) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

[mattgeer]

Yeah, I definitely bet here. I'd probably bet half the pot myself...maybe even a hair less. That check on the river seems like he gave up and is hoping you check back as well.

This line from the guy seems like a small/medium pair...I'd say 88s-JJs...I'd even say Qs are possible here because of the draws......my other guess would be absolute air like JT, AJ, AT...although these might be a bit light in a FR game...dunno....

I don't have enough experience really, but I think putting him on "AK" would be too specific...especially when the supposed case Ace hits the river.

[Mirage]

River: ($2.35) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

[bigloser2448]

Originally Posted by Mirage

oops. I meant to remove my river action (or lack thereof) from the Original Post. I just really had a strong feeling he had AK and was quite distracted 'cause I was playing this while watching the game.

So forget my stupidity for not value betting the river if you can. What's a good amount to bet, say $1.50 or so? And if he shoves to my bet I have to call, yes?

[Mirage]

Bet at least $2, and fist-pump call a shove. He's not really rep'ing AK with that sizing and the river check, but there are only 3 combos of AK left in the deck. You beat everything else. Even if he's only shoving queens full or better you are ahead of that range. The river is an absolute disaster as played, especially when you only had 57 bbs to start the hand. So this was certainly a good hand to post!

It is good that you are trying to think in terms of relative hand strength instead of absolute hand strength, because there are times when you can correctly fold a hand that seems pretty strong at first glance, or for that matter, correctly bet an objectively weak hand for value because you can read your opponent's range so well. But here, you have the effective nuts, shallow effective stacks, and against any reasonable opponent, you are ahead of his range to check-raise this river for value regardless.

Now, if you somehow got to this spot with 77, and you knew this guy was a nit, and you started with 150bbs+, now you are getting into a possible bet/fold scenario. But even then, checking back is disastrous, because there is so much you can get value from that you don't have to worry about him check/raising... (trip aces / flushes in particular.)

[bigloser2448]

Good point about it prolly not being AK after he checks the river. Now that I look at it, since he bet a little less than maybe he should have on each street rep'ing AK & going to value town, it looks like he gave up on the river. If he had AK, why wouldn't he continue to go for more value? I've got a hand or I don't.

So is the river the only street I messed up as played?

I mean I still don't see raising the flop as being profitable, because if he's got a King he's not going anywhere and could easily raise me off the hand.

I guess I could have raised the turn, but again, I don't see a lot of worse hands coming along, but maybe I'm wrong on that. I dunno.

[Mirage]

Nah, you played it ok considering he was UTG. But raising the turn would be fine too against a lot of players. Tough to say since what's better since this is Rush. Since you have 57bbs and a lot of rivers kill your action I'd be apt to raise/call the turn personally, but in general you are right to be a little more cautious against an UTG raise.

[sfustsh]

There's no way he's checking AK on the river. Take advantage and bet.

[Snickers99]

I'd shove on the river. He's not calling your value bet with much, so I'd shove and hope he thinks you're bluffing. This is 10NL. I overbet on purpose at times and it seems to work out for me. I just think if you bet just about anything, he's folding. So shove and try to get the most out of it. There's something about a shove that makes people want to call.

[Mirage]

Yeah, a shove here is pretty cool too since most 10nl competition is going to have a hard time getting away from anything. Hard to go wrong with your bet size here so long as you don't go too small.