Frustrating Start to the New Year
It’s only 12 days into the new year and I already want to throw one of my 2009 goals out the window. The goal I am referring to is 4.) Achieve Iron status each month on Full Tilt. The problem with this point is that it is affecting my monetary goals for the month and the year. Here is a breakdown of my win/loss stats for the year with a rough estimate on the amount played and sites played in parentheses.
$50NL
-$597.80 @ ~70%-75% (Full Tilt)
$100NL
$946.37 @ ~25%-30% (Full Tilt, Cake, Carbon, Absolute and Bodog)
You don’t have to be a math major to see that continuing to play at the same rate for the rest of the month would be really really stupid. Unfortunately for me one of my unofficial goals for the month was to build up my bankroll on Full Tilt playing $50NL so that I could play $100NL without a problem. As you can see it’s not exactly going as planned. But there is another underlying problem with the hands I have played at $50NL which is that I feel like I am running extremely bad and have been very unlucky. I have started to chronicle this in this thread on the Felt Poker Forum. Going by my stats in Holdem Manager for the month so far at $50NL my adjusted win/loss with EV All-ins would be $301.12. That comes out to a difference of $898.92 or essentially 18 buy-ins at $50NL over a roughly 22K hand sample. Now the real question is what do I make of all this. To be honest I am not quite sure as I would like to investigate this stat a little more and see if there are other factors which can affect it. Also I think a night of reviewing hands is definitely in order.
Well hopefully I can wrap my head around the situation some this week. If something doesn’t break my way by this weekend then definitely a change in priorities will be warranted. Unfortunately at the moment this bad streak is really starting to cause a mental strain to the point where I am frequently thinking about it and some nights I am losing sleep over it. The problem at this point is my pride is definitely getting in the way and I would hate to admit defeat and leave $50NL at Full Tilt a losing player for the month or year when it is quite possible the percentages show that I should be a winning player. Well time to wrap this post up. Feel free to check my thread linked above to see how I am running on Full Tilt this week. Hoping for another post either this weekend or the beginning of next week. Wish me luck because apparently I need it.