sevens

…it’s not this magical level that everyone wants to make it out to be. I’ve only played a ridiculously small sample (4k hands) but I’ve been mentally taking some general notes about what I’ve seen, and I’ll go through them here.
More Regs: This starts to be the level where more people are grinding out for a decent part time income. I think it’d be totally doable to make $500+ a month at 50NL, which helps out a majority of people. More regs…what this means for me is that I need to think about what their range from each position is, logically does their hand make sense, what does my hand look like within my range, etc etc. I’m gonna be trying a few adjustments on these tables when I have medium PPs in EP (we’re talking like…55 thru TT here) and taking a more aggressive line. Instead of limping and getting raised by a reg who holds 99 and c/f an Axx flop with 55, I take the initiative and it is now HIM who is set mining. This has two obvious advantages. One, I’ll win the pot more often in spots where I’d lose it, because I don’t require flopping a set. Two, regs can’t profitably set mine when I open with 66 from UTG because I’m never gonna be putting more chips in on A93r flops when I get raised or called on the flop. The disadvantages are that I lose set mining value against AA/KK. Still not sure what I’m gonna do with 22 thru 44 yet, probably just keep my same line, but they can probably be played similarly. (Note, this works against regs, not retarded fish who float with everything).

Different mistakes, same magnitude: People aren’t stacking off ultra light as often as they were at 25NL. It still happens, but just less often. Of course, fish still stack off, but that’s gonna happen at a lot of higher levels. Instead, they’re making other kinds of mistakes, such as taking lines that make no sense and trying to bluff the river with air, or playing their hand face up, which allows you to play perfectly against them. It’s just another game of “find Value Town”.

Less river bluffing: Every time I’ve called a 1/2 PSB on the river, I’ve lost. People just are not 3-barrel bluffing with missed AK, and they usually have exactly what they say they have. There is not enough double barreling taking place, so again, it lets you play pretty easily against them.

Position is important: If I had any ideas of how important position is at 25NL, it’s even more important at 50. It’s easier to bluff in position. It’s easier to float and bluff the turn in position. It’s easier to light 3-bet in position. You lose less when behind, in position. You have your hand on the pot size knob, in position.

So I could probably list a ton more, but let’s face it, everything in poker comes down to one thing. Everything you do - every bet, raise, call, or fold - all centers around one thing. It’s not bluffing, c-betting, or getting value, or position. It’s the fundamental theorem of poker. Or, in layman’s terms, making the best decision you could possibly make if you could see your opponent’s cards, and getting him to make mistakes if he could see yours. Another way of putting it, extracting when you’re ahead, minimizing when you’re behind, bluffing when you’re behind but can get an opponent to fold (making a mistake if they could see your hand).

So I’ll end with that. I’m confident I can beat 50NL. No doubt. Now I just have to put up or shut up, as they say.

Stake update: +$575

Things are going well!  I’ve got some really badass classes this semester, and I’m really glad I made the switch from being a performance major to being a composition major.  I’ve actually enjoyed playing guitar 100x more now that I can focus on using my creative energy for playing instead of focusing on playing scales, chord progressions, and technique every time I pick up the guitar.  We’ve got some awesome projects in my songwriting classes, very real-world applicable.  Our first one is to write a commercial (music, as in a radio commercial), and we were given a rough draft of lyrics and a sample tune that it’s supposed to sound like.  I have until next thursday to record it and find a girl to sing it.  I’m almost done, but I’m having a lot of fun working on it.  I’ve also got a pretty hot teacher for lyrics, and she’s opening for Ani DiFranco on Oct 3rd, which I’m trying to get some back stage passes or VIP something to.  We’ll see what happens, but either way I’m gonna go see it. 

I 4-tabled 50NL last night for about 500 hands and ran pretty good.  It mostly played the same as 25 from what I could tell, except the regs played back more and played top pair much better.  I can’t snap off river bets anymore with underpairs just because they check the turn (something that people do all the time with missed AK at 25).  I noticed people like to 3-bet my steals a lot more.  And I noticed people like to check raise missed flops that miss my logical range (I will post the hand later that lead me to this conclusion, maybe I just happened to run into an aggressive spewy player, but it actually was not horribly played by him, it just was unfortunate that I actually had a hand).  

And now the fun stuff - strategy!  This is something I’ve been doing for a while, and basically it’s already been said a thousand times through books, forums, but maybe I’ll say it in a different way that people can take something from it.  The topic is “Calling with weak hands.”  I’m primarily a math guy, so I’ll explain this in terms of pot odds and not in terms of feel.  I’ll take two extreme examples to illustrate the point.  

Ex. 1: You have AA on a J62r board.  A 4/3/1 set mining nit check raises all in on the flop.  Based on preflop action, you decide that he would only sometimes QQ, KK, or AJ in this spot, and he will have a set more often than not.  Easy fold right?  Well, let’s let pot odds decide.  

1a) If you are 100BB deep, and the pot before any preflop betting is 10BBs (rounded up from 9.5 - blinds + 4x preflop raise and call), you bet 7BBs and he check raises all in for his remaining 96BBs, the pot is 10 + 7 + 96 = 113BBs and it costs you your remaining 89BBs (100 - 4 - 7) to call.  You are getting about 1.25 to 1 on a call, so you need to have the best hand about 45% of the time (or roughly half, if you wanna estimate) in order to make the call.  Since it’s much more likely he will have a set here, you make the fold.  You can at least deduce that he will have a set more than 55% of the time, so calling his all in is not profitable. 

1b) You are effectively 20BBs deep.  Let’s forget how unprofitable it is for him to be set mining and how intuitively easy this call is, and instead just look at the pot odds.  The pot is 10BBs, you bet 7, and he check raises all in again.  This time, you need to call 9BB more (20 - 4 - 7) into a pot of 10 + 7 + 16 = 33BBs.  This time, you’re getting about 3.7 to 1 on a call, and only need to have the best hand about 20% of the time to make a call profitable.  Despite the fact that he’s such a nit, you can easily conclude that your aces will be the best hand at least 20% of the time (again, forget the fact that this is intuitively a ridiculously easy call and that if he’s set mining, he’s not even close to getting correct implied odds, so getting all in here even if he only has a set and nothing else will still be profitable for you).  

Ex 2 - You have AA again, and the board is 6TJ with two hearts.  You bet, and a somewhat loose and aggressive 27/5/5 player check raises all in.  Call or fold?  Let’s look at pot odds again. 

You are 100BBs deep, and just like before, you need to have the best hand about 45% of the time or more to make the call profitable.  Another way off putting it is to ask yourself, “Is he bluffing or semi-bluffing at least 55% of the time?”  On this board and against this villain, you decide that it’s possible he out-flopped you with JT or a set, but it’s much more likely that he has Jx or a draw.  At least, he has a worse hand more than half the time.  So a call is easily profitable in this spot.

So I know these seem really basic and intuitive (and “duh easy snap call, omg I can’t believe you put this in a blog and called it strategy lol”), but the point I’m making is that you can apply this stuff to every hand and not just the intuitive ones.  Look at the pot odds you are being offered and ask yourself, “How often do I need to be good here?”  If you will have the best hand often enough (because you decide that a semi-bluff or TP or whatever is a big enough part of villain’s range) to make a call profitable, then you have to make it.  Anything else is just throwing money away.  Also note that this thought process applies when no further betting will take place between you and your opponent, so the concept I’m discussing will be applicable when you’re getting it all in on the flop or are contemplating a bet/call on the turn (and you think there’s a good chance that if you’re ahead, then villain will not bet the river) or a bet/call on the river (where there’s obviously no more betting).  

As always, if I’ve messed anything up or have said some incorrect stuff, please let me know, but hopefully this has helped in some way.  And now some hands and stake update.

 
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold’em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: $74.45
CO: $127.10
BTN: $199.45
SB: $121.55
BB: $105.40
UTG: $49.45
UTG+1: $43.05
Hero (MP1): $60.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with 4 4
2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($1.50) 9 6 4 (3 players)
SB bets $2, BB folds, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $5

Turn: ($15.50) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB raises to $30, Hero raises to $53.35 all in, SB calls $23.35

River: ($122.20) J

Final Pot: $122.20
SB shows 9 K (two pair, Kings and Nines)
Hero shows 4 4 (three of a kind, Fours)
Hero wins $119.20
(Rake: $3.00)

********

I haven’t updated in a few days because everything’s been going great and it’s been pretty much routine business.  I’m glad that I took the last 30 days or so to really get my 25NL game solid before taking a shot at 50NL though.  Thanks to Split Suit, the feltpoker.com forums, and the twoplustwo.com forums. I’ve really gotten my thought process much clearer and more efficient.  I don’t know if I put this in a past blog, but I’m 12-tabling 25NL currently.  I could probably do more, but for right now, I feel I’m optimally playing at 12.  

So, on to some actual theory/strat stuff.  

 

I’ve read before that bankroll is only part of the “requirement” for moving up.  The other parts are having confidence and proven skill to beat your current level.  Because of my most recent month at Full Tilt, I now have about 35k more hands at 25NL and in turn, a better developed skill for beating it.  <not a brag>I have a proven winrate of somewhere between 5 and 6 PTBB/100 over almost 100k hands at 25NL, and I can say that I would never have the confidence/skill for that level if I did not play that many hands.  I am 100% positive that anyone who puts in that volume and amount of study/effort towards refining their game can achieve at least that, if not better.  Again, I’m not bragging (lol @ bragging about beating 25NL), I’m just using it to make a point.  

 

When I first tried playing 25NL, I played 2 tables.  Losing a BI was like a punch in the stomach.  Just the mere fact that I had “so much money” on the line made me play less than my A game.  Since playing 100k hands at 25, I’ve developed not just skill, but also a great deal of confidence in my game and my ability to beat the level.  When my stake started, I actually had less money to play on than my first shot at 25 (16 buy ins instead of 20), but I was playing more tables.  I was only able to do it because my confidence was much higher.  

 

So now to come full circle, I’m really looking forward to 50NL.  <again, not a brag>I feel like 25 is not the best place to spend my time anymore, because my confidence/experience/proper bankroll dictate that I should play higher, or at least give it a shot.  So, what you (whoever is reading) can take from this is that if you want to get better, PLAY MORE HANDS!  PLAY A LOT OF HANDS!  Play until your confidence is high enough that you rarely don’t know what to do.  Maybe not even that, because there’s always times where you aren’t quite sure.  I’ll say this, play until you can think logically through hands, have a plan, can calculate simple equity vs range vs pot odds problems, and you can trust your thought process to be accurate.  I’ve got a long ways to go, no doubt, but playing a lot of hands has been the biggest reason for my improvement.  

 

And now for a fun hand.  This villain is not really known, but he’s running 36/23/2 over about 100 hands.  I hate the way I played it because I was thinking about folding the flop, but before I timed out, I decided there were more hands in his range that I beat (I’ve seen the auto PSB before, and it’s hardly ever JUST TP).  It all worked out in the end, but I hate my line.  I guess I just hate playing OOP vs an apparent laggy player. 

 

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold’em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $35.60
UTG: $18.70
UTG+1: $70.10
MP1: $80.85
MP2: $19.75
CO: $10.45
BTN: $19.15
Hero (SB): $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with K K
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2.75

Flop: ($7.25) J A T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $6.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $6.25

Turn: ($19.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

River: ($19.75) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $9.50, Hero calls $9.50

Final Pot: $38.75
MP1 shows 3 3 (a pair of Threes)
Hero shows K K (three of a kind, Kings)
Hero wins $36.85
(Rake: $1.90)

 

Stake update: + $522

I got bored of my usual 12/9 - 14/10 game, so I found a bunch of nitty tables and played 17/15 over about 750 hands.  Basically, I made it my goal to see just how wide and how often I could steal/isolate.  K7o?  Hell yeah!  95s?  Raisy Daisy!  J8o?  It’s conneeeeeeeected!  What I found was that people just don’t really adjust or play back, so when they do, it’s really easy to fold.  
I’m probably gonna take the night off from poker tonight because I have a session where I’m sweating a fellow 2p2′er this afternoon, and I’m basically 4 days ahead of schedule for my stake hand-requirement.  And I’m getting internet installed in my apartment on tomorrow morning so it will be easier to play from now on, as I won’t have to be at school or a coffee shop.  

 

Speaking of school, things are going great!  I have a really kick ass schedule - I don’t start until 11am on mondays, 1pm on tuesdays, 9am/10am on wednesday/thursday, and I have fridays completely off.  My classes are pretty awesome too, and I’m looking forward especially to my Film and Video Scoring class; we’re doing digital sound editing/creation using Abelton Live. And we finally have some good looking girls at my school.  + life EV. 

 

Stake Update: +$325

Had a +4 BI night!  Another 1700 hands, and things are moving along nicely!  If there’s one drawback to running awesome, it’s this: You never learn anything when things are going great.  When you keep flopping sets, or hitting a two outter to stack a better pair, or call a flop bet to chase an inside draw because of implied odds, and you hit…you don’t really learn much.  It feels FUCKING FANTASTIC to run great and make a lot of cash really quickly (I’m not counting, but 12 BIs in two days…..).  But I’m not really learning a whole lot right now.  I don’t mean this to sound egotistical or arrogant, but maybe this means my 25NL game is rock solid and I’m ready for 50NL now.  Just need a new challenge.  I’m actually looking forward to 50 so I can see what all the fuss is about, because apparently it’s hard.  Harder than 25.  We’ll see. 

 

Here’s some hands.   (WHATSUP, ROYAL FLUSH???  OH IT BURNS, DOESN’T IT SHORT STACKER???)

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold’em - 9 players

CO: $13.20
BTN: $25.00
SB: $3.25
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $17.55
UTG+1: $29.10
UTG+2: $18.70
MP1: $17.30
MP2: $4.90

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A K
4 folds, MP2 raises to $4.90 all in, 3 folds, Hero calls $4.65

Flop: ($9.90) J T Q

Turn: ($9.90) K

River: ($9.90) 7

Final Pot: $9.90
Hero shows A K (a Royal Flush)
MP2 shows A 8 (a straight, Ace high)
Hero wins $9.45
(Rake: $0.45)

 

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold’em - 9 players

CO: $24.40
BTN: $50.00
SB: $50.00
BB: $25.00
UTG: $50.80
UTG+1: $25.10
UTG+2: $77.50
MP1: $14.20
Hero (MP2): $35.85

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with 7 7
3 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, 4 folds, MP1 calls $0.85

Flop: ($2.55) 6 9 7 (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.25, Hero raises to $3.30, MP1 calls $3.05

Turn: ($9.15) 7 (2 players)
MP1 bets $9.80 all in, Hero calls $9.80

River: ($28.75) 6

 

Stake update: +$342

My hand of the night, which also happens to be my biggest pot to date.  Note how horribly CO played the hand.  To be honest, when he called my flop raise, I was pretty much done with the hand, because the way he played it (stats and timing tells), I felt like he had a set or KK+ at that point.

 

SB: $69.55
BB: $20.25
Hero (UTG): $45.45
UTG+1: $42.85
MP1: $25.25
MP2: $49.65
CO: $55.60
BTN: $12.20

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, CO calls $1, 2 folds, BB raises to $3, Hero calls $2, CO calls $2

Flop: ($9.10) 5 6 3 (3 players)
BB bets $6, Hero raises to $16, CO requests TIME, CO calls $16, BB raises to $17.25 all in, Hero calls $1.25, CO calls $1.25

Turn: ($60.85) Q (3 players - 1 is all in)
Hero bets $25.20 all in, CO calls $25.20

River: ($111.25) 7

Final Pot: $111.25
BB shows A A (a pair of Aces)
Hero shows Q Q (three of a kind, Queens)
CO shows K K (a pair of Kings)

That’s what she said.  

 

So I had the best night of poker of my life last night!  I’ve won more actual money, but never have I been up so many buy ins in one night.  Up almost 9 BIs over 2,100 hands!  Holy God it was awesome!

 

I knew this would happen because I have consistently been getting my money in good and getting people to make huge mistakes.  It’s just nice to have a night where your play is rewarded.  

 

In other news, we’re getting internet in my apartment on Saturday, so I’ll probably be making a 25NL vid sometime this weekend.  I’ll cross post it here for anyone reading my blog, for feedback.  

 

Not much else to say, other than I feel like I could do anything right now.  :)  Running well in poker and having your good play get rewarded is like a natural high.  Plus, it’s nice making $220 in one night playing 25NL. 

 

Stake update: + $260

This will be brief. 

 

Positive Updates: 

• I’m successfully 12 tabling now!
• I’m getting better at walking away when beats cause tilt (and thus preventing spew from tilt)
• My game in general is getting pretty good I think
• I have 100% confidence in my ability to consistently beat 25NL

I don’t think there’d be any benefit to writing about how “I’m running really bad, can you believe this suckout, this idiot did this blah blah blah” because that stuff happens.  I know that.  I’m fine with the fact that I have to endure that sort of thing, and just keep telling myself “their not playing back at me, their not playing back at me….”.  So instead, I’m gonna write about the 2 ways that I tilt, for reference, and maybe someone reading this can take something from it. 

 

The Setup - OMFG you got it all in with 2nd pair vs my AA and hit runner runner perfect. WTF you idiot.  Or, OMFG I can’t believe I’m getting 3-bet with QQ AGAIN.  Or, WTF you limped AK UTG and DIDNT reraise preflop when I raised with KK?  You KNOW an ace is gonna flop every time.  

 

Tilt #1 - So after losing a stack on some dumb suckout, I decide that I’m not gonna let people off the hook easily.  The next time I get TPTK/overpair, I’m pushin’ it hard.  Then I get c/r’ed on a slightly drawy board and assume “He must be doing this with a draw, I’m all in!” and of course, they have middle set like they always do.  If I wasn’t tilting, it’d be pretty obvious that they have a set, since they’re running 4/2/2 over 500 hands.  So Tilt #1 is that I think everyone’s playing back at me, despite what their line says.  Every time I can think of where I got into this mindset of “they’re playing back at me”, I’ve been wrong, and they’ve had exactly what their line told me they had.  

Remedy for Tilt #1: Be consciously aware of when I start to get into this mindset.  Focus on what they’re telling me about their hand and not on some stupid multiple level thinking.  Remember that, while they may be playing back at me, there’s a 95% chance that they’re not, and it’s only a change in my perception that makes me think that. 

 

Tilt #2 - So after I realize that people have the goods on me when they 3-bet or check raise or value shove the river, I start tightening WAY up.  I fold to 3-bets because it’s always AA.  I fold TPTK to a raise on a drawy board.  I even go so far as to stop stealing altogether because I’m afraid of getting 3-bet.  I even folded KK as an overpair to a SINGLE donk bet.  I turn into this “Great Laydown” machine, which is really just playing bad, and another form of tilt.  Leaving money on the table by folding winning hands because I’m playing too tight is just as bad as spewing money because I’m playing too loosely or aggressively.  

 

Remedy for Tilt #2: Be willing to call more on the flop, re-eval the turn.  People usually don’t double barrel lightly so that will tell me alot about where I stand.  Stop putting opponents on a single hand (last night I 3-bet a 10/6/2 with KK and he called on the button, flop is Q8x with two clubs, I lead for 3/4 pot and he shoves after tanking.  I fold, and complain, and he claims he had a pair of 8s with a club draw.  I made the mistake of putting him on QQ only) and put them on a range of likely hands based on the board texture.  Try to play more in position, and if I can’t, raise more preflop to better define my opponent’s range.  Exercise pot control in WA/WB situations, but not to the point of sacrificing value bets.  

 

And remember, they’re not playing back at me.